A recent report from the United States Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has raised alarm bells about Pakistan’s growing nuclear arsenal and its strategic military posture toward India. The DIA’s annual threat assessment emphasizes that Pakistan continues to view India as an existential threat and is actively pursuing nuclear modernization to offset India’s conventional military advantage.
According to the assessment, Pakistan is committed to expanding its nuclear capabilities, including the development of battlefield or tactical nuclear weapons. The report highlights that the country’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programme is being supported by foreign materials and technologies, most of which are believed to come from China. These materials are often transshipped through key global hubs like Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.
The intelligence report underscores that Pakistan’s military priorities over the next year will include cross-border tensions, particularly with India, increased attacks by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch nationalist insurgents, counterterrorism operations, and nuclear weapons development. The DIA also noted the ongoing strategic military partnership between Pakistan and China, with both nations conducting joint exercises, including a significant air drill held in November 2024.
As per a separate analysis by the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has grown to approximately 170 warheads as of 2024. This far exceeds earlier projections made by the DIA, which estimated that Pakistan would have around 60–80 warheads by 2020. At the current pace of development, Pakistan could possess as many as 200 nuclear warheads by the end of 2025.
Pakistan has never publicly disclosed the exact size or composition of its nuclear stockpile, making it harder for global experts to estimate its capabilities compared to other nuclear-armed nations. Unlike India, which has adopted a “No First Use” policy, Pakistan has not made a similar declaration. Instead, it focuses on deploying smaller tactical nuclear weapons that could be used to counterbalance India’s superior conventional forces in the event of a military conflict.
The report also emphasizes the significant role China plays in Pakistan’s military and nuclear strategy. Pakistan continues to be a major recipient of China’s military support and economic investments. The increasing cooperation between the two nations is seen as a key driver behind Pakistan’s nuclear advancements.
The growing size of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and its aggressive posture toward India raise serious concerns about the potential for escalation in South Asia. With both nations armed with nuclear weapons and long-standing territorial disputes, the risk of a miscalculation could have catastrophic consequences. The DIA’s findings underscore the urgent need for international diplomacy and regional dialogue to maintain stability in the region.
