A significant rise in the number of ethnic minority MPs is expected in the upcoming election on 4th July, as projected by British Future. The thinktank’s analysis suggests that the new parliament could see an unprecedented increase, with an additional 20 to 30 MPs from ethnic minority backgrounds.
British Future’s study indicates that approximately 14% of MPs will be from ethnic minorities, bringing the parliament closer to reflecting the diversity of the UK electorate. This projection aligns with estimates from Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics, who states that 14% of the UK electorate is from ethnic minority backgrounds.
The Labour Party is poised to lead this diversification, fielding 125 ethnic minority candidates (19.9% of their total). The Conservative Party follows with 86 candidates (13.7%), while the Liberal Democrats have 66 candidates (10.5%). Other parties, such as the SNP, Green Party, and Reform Party, show lower percentages, with Plaid Cymru and the UUP each selecting one ethnic minority candidate.
If Labour secures a majority, their number of ethnic minority MPs could rise to between 66 and 83 in a landslide victory. The Conservative Party is projected to have around 20 ethnic minority MPs. Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, remarked, “In just 40 years, we will have gone from zero to 1 in 7 MPs being from an ethnic minority background. Britain is closing the gap between the diversity of Parliament and the electorate much faster than anyone thought possible.”
However, Katwala warned that increased representation does not automatically translate into inclusive party cultures or policies. “Our current debates on race often feel as polarised as ever,” he noted. Yet, he acknowledged the significance of this
development, stating, “A stronger share of voice does make a difference. So this milestone in representation remains something to celebrate – few, if any, other Western democracies are matching Britain’s progress.”
On gender representation, the study reveals slower progress. A Labour majority would result in a record 252 women MPs, raising female representation in the Commons to 39%, still below their 51% share of the UK population. Jill Rutter from British Future highlighted the importance of diversity in parliament, noting, “A diverse parliament brings different perspectives to its work, which can lead to more effective policy-making.”
The 2019 election was notable for having 66 ethnic minority MPs, representing 10% of parliament for the first time. Significantly, 37 of these were women, marking the first time women outnumbered men in this group.
