Highlights:
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India refused to rush into a one-sided trade deal despite facing steep US tariffs.
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Modi avoided public confrontation, denying Trump the spectacle he often uses as leverage.
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Europe learned that trade agreements and alliances did not shield it from Trump’s tariffs.
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India kept strategic options open with Russia, China, and new trade partners.
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New Delhi controlled the narrative, limiting Trump’s ability to shape or exaggerate talks.
When Donald Trump targets a country, past goodwill carries little weight. Europe has experienced this reality directly. Despite formal trade agreements, diplomatic engagement, and repeated public affirmations of alliance, several European leaders found themselves subjected to tariffs, threats, and public criticism. India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, anticipated this approach early and adjusted its strategy accordingly.
Recent developments have highlighted Trump’s governing style, which relies heavily on tariffs as tools of pressure and on public messaging as a form of leverage. For Europe, the results have been disruptive. For India, the same tactics were met with caution, delay, and quiet resistance.
Modi and Trump: Reading the Tariff Strategy Early
Modi entered Trump’s second term with a clear understanding of how tariffs functioned in Trump’s worldview. They were not simply economic measures, but instruments used to extract political and personal concessions. When Washington pressed New Delhi to finalize a trade deal, Modi’s government resisted the urgency.
Even after the United States imposed tariffs as high as 50 percent on certain Indian goods, including penalties tied to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil, India did not accelerate negotiations. Modi’s approach emphasized patience and balance rather than speed.
In contrast, several European governments moved quickly to protect their interests through agreements, only to find those arrangements offered little protection once tariffs were announced.
Europe’s Experience With Trump Tariffs
Europe’s expectations of insulation through alliances were tested when Trump imposed tariffs of up to 25 percent on close US partners, despite having signed trade agreements with them the previous year. The actions demonstrated that formal deals did not limit Trump’s willingness to apply economic pressure.
French President Emmanuel Macron and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte were reportedly surprised when Trump made private communications public during tensions related to Greenland. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who had recently emphasized his working relationship with Trump, later faced criticism over the Chagos Islands deal. These moments reinforced a consistent message: alignment did not guarantee protection.
Modi’s Response to Claims and Pressure
The warning signs for India appeared months earlier. In May 2025, Trump publicly claimed that he had prevented conflict between India and Pakistan through tariff threats. India moved quickly to clarify that the ceasefire resulted from direct bilateral contact, not US mediation. Pakistan accepted Trump’s account. India did not.
Modi chose not to escalate the dispute publicly. Instead, India corrected the record while avoiding direct confrontation. This approach denied Trump an opportunity to frame the situation as a personal diplomatic victory.
Tensions intensified during a phone call on June 17, when Modi directly rejected Trump’s claims and declined to engage in personal praise, including references to a Nobel Peace Prize. Soon after, India faced increased tariffs, while Pakistan was subject to far lighter measures. Despite this imbalance, Modi did not alter course.
Modi’s Trade Strategy and Strategic Signaling
Rather than responding with public criticism, Indian officials continued behind-the-scenes engagement. New Delhi kept sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy closed to US demands. Imports of Russian oil continued without interruption. Domestically, Modi reinforced messaging around self-reliance and economic stability.
At the same time, Modi signaled that India had alternatives. Engagement with China at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and visible warmth with Russian President Vladimir Putin underscored India’s strategic independence. Trade agreements with the UK, New Zealand, and Oman progressed, while discussions with the European Union moved closer to a broader agreement.
India also quietly imposed a 30 percent tariff on US pulses, doing so without public announcement or political messaging.
Modi and Narrative Control
A key element of Modi’s approach was managing communication. By limiting direct calls and ensuring India’s version of events was released promptly, New Delhi reduced Trump’s ability to define outcomes publicly. This strategy minimized the risk of exaggerated claims and kept India’s position clear.
Unlike several European counterparts who were forced to respond after public statements from Washington, India maintained control over timing and tone.
Modi’s Approach Compared to Europe
As European leaders reassess their engagement with Washington, Modi’s strategy stands in contrast. India avoided rushing into agreements, resisted public pressure, and preserved strategic flexibility. While Europe grappled with the consequences of assuming loyalty would be rewarded, Modi treated tariffs as a predictable instrument and planned accordingly.
The result was not the avoidance of tariffs altogether, but a limitation of long-term exposure and reputational damage.
Did Modi Outsmart the Trump Tariff Playbook?
The evidence suggests that Modi understood Trump’s tariff playbook earlier than many US allies. By refusing spectacle, avoiding personal confrontation, and keeping multiple diplomatic and trade options open, Modi reduced the impact of pressure tactics that caught Europe off guard.
As global trade tensions continue, Modi’s handling of Trump’s tariffs offers a case study in restraint, preparation, and narrative control. While others reacted, India anticipated.
