US ‘Compact’ could limit Indian undergraduate admissions at select Universities

Highlights:

• The White House proposed a “Compact for Academic Excellence” for nine US universities, linking federal support to compliance.

• International undergraduates would be capped at 15% of total undergraduates, with a 5% limit per country, including India.

• The cap affects only undergraduate programs, not graduate or doctoral studies.

• India’s US student population is mostly in graduate programs and OPT; only about 11% are undergraduates.

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• The policy may restrict Indian undergraduate admissions at universities near the cap or with high international intake, but short-term impact is limited.

The White House has proposed a funding-linked “Compact for Academic Excellence” aimed at nine top US universities. The proposal offers these institutions preferential federal support if they agree to specific conditions, including a cap on international undergraduates. Under the plan, international students would make up no more than 15% of the total undergraduate population at each university, with any single country, including India, limited to 5%.

This is not a nationwide policy but a targeted offer for select institutions: Brown, Dartmouth, MIT, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Southern California, Vanderbilt, the University of Virginia, the University of Texas, and the University of Arizona. The compact is detailed in a nine-page document titled Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education.

Proposed Cap on International Undergraduates

The compact specifies that the cap applies to the entire undergraduate population of each participating university, not individual departments or programs. It affects only undergraduate students, leaving graduate and doctoral programs unaffected.

The White House proposal aims to encourage these universities to “balance” international student diversity while linking federal support to compliance with the policy. The limit is intended to ensure that no single nationality dominates the undergraduate population at elite US institutions.

Indian Students Mostly in Graduate Programs

Recent data from Open Doors 2024 show that India’s rise as the largest source of international students in the US is largely driven by graduate programs and Optional Practical Training (OPT), not undergraduate enrollment.

In the 2023–24 academic year, India sent a total of 331,602 students to the US, a 23% increase from the previous year. Of these, 196,567 were graduate students, 97,556 were on OPT, and only 36,053 were undergraduates. This means Indian undergraduates represent roughly 11% of the total Indian student population in the US.

At the national level, the US hosted 1,126,690 international students in 2023–24, with record numbers in graduate programs and OPT. Since the proposed compact affects only undergraduates, it is unlikely to significantly impact India’s overall student presence in the short term.

When Could the Cap Affect Indian Undergraduates?

The policy could affect Indian undergraduates under three main scenarios:

1. Universities Near the Limit: If a participating university already has close to 5% Indian undergraduates, it would need to restrict new admissions from India to comply with the cap.
2. Campuses With High International Intake: Universities with more than 15% international undergraduates may reduce offers to students from multiple countries, including India, to meet the overall limit.
3. Future Growth in Popular Fields: Even if current numbers are below the limit, the cap could restrict growth in fields such as computer science, data analytics, and engineering, which are highly sought after by Indian students.

Short-Term Outlook for Indian Undergraduate Admissions

In the immediate term, the impact on Indian undergraduates is expected to be limited. Most Indian students in the US are in graduate programs or on OPT, which are not affected by this compact. However, specific universities may see tighter competition for undergraduate admission among Indian applicants.

Key factors to watch include which universities agree to sign the compact, whether additional institutions are added later, and whether similar caps are extended to graduate programs in the future.

Currently, the proposal appears largely symbolic, aimed at “balancing” student diversity rather than dramatically altering Indian student flows. It could limit the growth of Indian undergraduates at a few elite campuses but does not affect the larger population of Indian graduate students, who represent the primary strength of India’s US education presence.