Highlights:
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President Donald Trump said India has “largely stopped” purchasing Russian oil, suggesting a major change in India’s energy strategy.
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Trump indicated he may visit India in 2026 if invited by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, recalling his previous visit during the 2020 “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad.
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The Trump administration has imposed higher tariffs on Indian exports and introduced a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa petitions, affecting Indian IT and outsourcing sectors.
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Despite past camaraderie, policy differences, tariffs, and Trump’s claims about mediating India–Pakistan tensions have cooled bilateral relations.
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Alexandra Hermann of Oxford Economics said India currently faces about 50% tariffs on exports to the U.S., higher than China’s 47%. Talks are ongoing to reduce tariffs to around 20%.
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Trump’s statement contrasts with expert views that India is unlikely to fully phase out Russian oil due to affordability and supply reliability.
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Recent sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21, have led Indian and Chinese refiners to reduce some orders, with Russian crude now trading at a steep discount to Brent.
President Donald Trump said that India has “largely stopped” purchasing Russian oil, signaling a potential shift in the country’s energy policy amid ongoing U.S. pressure to reduce dependence on Moscow. Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump noted that trade negotiations between the U.S. and India were moving forward and added that he would consider visiting India in 2026 if invited by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Trump described Modi as “a friend” and “a great man,” recalling his last visit to the country for the “Namaste Trump” event held in Ahmedabad in 2020. The two leaders have shared a visible camaraderie in the past, but recent developments in trade and policy have led to growing differences between Washington and New Delhi.
Trump’s Trade Policies Affect India
Since returning to office, Trump has imposed higher tariffs on Indian exports, a move that has strained trade relations. His administration also introduced a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa petitions, a change that has impacted Indian IT professionals and outsourcing companies that depend heavily on the U.S. market.
In addition, Trump has repeatedly claimed credit for easing past tensions between India and Pakistan — remarks that the Indian government has strongly denied. These statements, combined with protectionist trade measures, have cooled the diplomatic tone between the two countries.
According to trade analysts, India–U.S. relations have entered a phase of cautious engagement, with both nations balancing cooperation and competition. Alexandra Hermann, Head of Southeast Asia Research at Oxford Economics, said talks were still ongoing to reduce tariffs on Indian goods. “Currently, India faces tariffs of about 50 percent on exports to the U.S.—higher than even China, which faces 47 percent duties,” she said. “If negotiations progress, tariffs could be lowered to around 20 percent, placing India in a similar bracket as Vietnam and Thailand, though still higher than Japan and South Korea.”
Trump and the Russian Oil Issue
The issue of Russian oil imports has emerged as a central topic in discussions between Washington and New Delhi. Trump asserted that India has significantly cut its purchases of Russian crude, but experts caution that this reduction may not indicate a long-term strategic change.
India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, has maintained that its energy decisions are based on cost efficiency and supply reliability. Russian oil remains attractive due to discounted prices resulting from Western sanctions. Despite Trump’s claim of a sharp reduction, India is unlikely to completely halt its Russian imports given current market conditions.
Recent U.S. sanctions on major Russian energy companies Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21, have prompted refiners in both India and China to scale back some orders. According to Reuters, Russian crude is now trading at its steepest discount to Brent in nearly a year. This market shift suggests that importers, including India, are diversifying suppliers primarily due to pricing pressure rather than geopolitical alignment.
Trump’s Comments and India’s Energy Calculations
Industry experts note that India’s continued reliance on Russian oil stems from economic practicality. Trump may be signaling optimism about India’s alignment with U.S. strategic interests, but analysts argue that the country will continue to prioritize affordability.
Prateek Pandey, Head of APAC Oil and Gas Research at Rystad Energy, explained, “Economics will ultimately drive India’s decisions.” He added, “Completely phasing out Russian oil isn’t realistic,” highlighting that Russia remains a cost-efficient supplier in a volatile global energy market.
Trump’s statement reflects broader U.S. efforts to encourage countries to reduce trade with Russia following the Ukraine conflict. However, India’s long-standing policy of strategic autonomy allows it to balance global partnerships without fully aligning with any one power.
Trump May Visit India in 2026
Alongside his comments on energy and trade, Trump said he would consider visiting India next year if invited by Prime Minister Modi. The former president’s last visit to India in 2020 drew massive public attention and was seen as a symbol of growing ties between the two democracies.
If the 2026 visit takes place, it could serve as an opportunity to reset bilateral relations. Analysts believe that both countries will seek to strengthen cooperation in areas such as defense technology, clean energy, and digital trade.
Balancing Trade, Diplomacy, and Energy Interests
As discussions continue, Trump’s administration faces the challenge of maintaining a working relationship with India while pursuing its broader foreign policy objectives. For India, the immediate priority remains securing affordable energy and favorable trade terms.
Despite Trump’s claim that India has “largely stopped” buying Russian oil, analysts agree that New Delhi’s energy strategy will continue to depend on global price fluctuations and domestic demand. While diplomatic engagement between Washington and New Delhi may see periodic strains, both countries are expected to maintain pragmatic ties driven by mutual economic and strategic interests.
In the coming months, Trump’s remarks and the evolving sanctions landscape will likely shape India’s oil import decisions and its role in the shifting global energy market.
