AFGHANISTAN and India are set to forge closer ties today as Hamid Karzai visits New Delhi during a highly unstable time in South Asia.
The Afghan president, making his second trip to the Indian capital this year, will meet Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh against a backdrop of shifting relations in the war-wracked and nuclear-armed region.
Some analysts in India predict that Karzai will elevate the role of India in stabilising his violence-torn country as he eyes a drawdown of US-led troops by 2014 after more than a decade of fighting.
They argue that Karzai is losing patience with Pakistan, whom he accuses of funding militant groups, and is unable to count on the US.
“Karzai’s visit comes at a crucial juncture to endorse India’s involvement in Afghanistan,” Saeed Naqvi from the Observer Research Foundation think-tank told reporters.
“Karzai is coming to India to confer on India the tag ‘reliable ally’… India will get the right to play a more pronounced role (in Afghanistan) after Karzai’s visit.”
The Indian Express newspaper reported on Sunday (October 2) that the Afghan leader would sign a “strategic partnership” agreement with Dr Singh, the first such pact with any country in the world.
The proposed alliance, which foreign ministry officials declined to confirm, was said to include an Indian commitment to increase its training of Afghan security forces, including the police.
Indian involvement in Afghanistan is extremely sensitive because of the delicate and often deadly power games in South Asia.
New Delhi, fearful of the return of an Islamist regime in Kabul, has ploughed billions of dollars of aid into the country to gain influence – raising suspicion in Pakistan which views Afghanistan as its backyard.
But anger in Kabul about the recent death of former president and peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani – killed by a Pakistani citizen, according to Karzai’s office – is seen as pushing Afghanistan further into India’s orbit.
“After all the destruction and misery, the double-game towards Afghanistan and the use of terrorism as an excuse still continues,” Karzai said of Pakistan yesterday evening before leaving for his two-day trip to New Delhi.
Indian political analyst Subhash Agrawal, head of India Focus, a private think-tank, said the visit was “very, very significant in light of Afghanistan accusing Pakistan of being involved in the killing of Rabbani.”
“This visit creates a more of a natural window for India to have a sustainable role in Afghanistan post-2014,” Agrawal told reporters.
Some analysts fear, however, that a greater role for India would lead to a more intense and dangerous “proxy war” between it and nuclear-armed Pakistan on Afghan territory, with unpredictable consequences.
