RESIDENTS of Oldham have started voting today (December 3) in a by-election that will test the leadership of Labour's new leader, Jeremy Corbyn.
Bookmakers expect the Labour candidate, Jim McMahon, to win in Oldham West and Royton, the former industrial town outside Manchester, in the election triggered by the death of the incumbent, Michael Meacher.
But the vote raises doubts about the party's popularity following infighting in Labour. Its main challenger in Oldham, the anti-European Union, anti-immigration United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), is highlighting Labour's lack of unity on security.
One UKIP campaigner has been going around dressed as Winston Churchill, striking a contrast with Corbyn's pacificism.
A win in Oldham would mark the start of a comeback for the party after it suffered a big defeat in the national election in May, shadow chancellor John McDonnell told campaigners.
But some in Labour are worried. "The people who might be patriotic but who are socialist leaning – they might decide to vote UKIP," a Labour campaigner who had travelled to Oldham from London, said on condition of anonymity.
There have been no independent opinion polls, making the outcome hard to call, but head of research at pollster YouGov Anthony Wells said Labour would likely win, but with a smaller majority, partly due to the an expected low turnout.
"I don't think labour is going to lose it," he said. "But if it is at all close, it should be ringing huge alarm bells for Labour."
Oldham, a former cotton spinning town once a hub of northern industry, has long been a Labour "safe seat". There is an especially large base of Labour support among Oldham's large Asian community, whom UKIP would struggle to attract, but the party's message about Corbyn is resonating with some voters.
"He's not willing to defend the country," said Wayne, a retired builder in his fifties. "I've always voted Labour. (This time) it would be Labour, or UKIP because of Corbyn."
Corbyn voted against Britain's military action against Daesh in the vote in parliament last night (December 2). He cancelled a campaign trip to Oldham and Labour's candidate, Jim McMahon, has focused on his four years leading the local council in what some say is a move to distance himself from the party turmoil in London.
UKIP has poked fun at Corbyn, calling him a "gift" to the party, and now says it is the true representative of the working class – Labour's traditional electorate.
UKIP's popularity soared in the national election and pushed the Conservative party into a close third place in this part of Oldham by taking 21 per cent of the vote.
UKIP candidate John Bickley said he was appealing to voters who "can almost be regarded as the forgotten", who feel that nobody cares about them; the party's message chimes well with residents concerned about jobs, the cost of living and a feeling that local and national politicians do nothing for people.
"Labour never had to campaign here, they have never had to try … Now they are having to get their finger out," said UKIP's Bickley. "All bets are off."
