The stupendous victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to end the 14-year exile of Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh, which the party said was ‘ruined’ by SP and BSP rule. The BJP emerged with more than 300 seats in the 403-seat Assembly, thus heading for a three-fourth majority. The Samajwadi Party-Congress combine leading in just 74 seats. The mandate reaffirmed Modi's standing among the masses and endorsement of his popular agenda, especially demonetisation. It will also be a repeat of its Lok Sabha sweep, when it won 71 of the 80 seats.
Overjoyed BJP workers broke into celebrations and raised victory slogans across BJP offices in Uttar Pradesh. Workers raised slogans like ‘Chappa Chappa Bhajpa’, ‘Kahan pade ho chakkar mein, koi nahin hai takkar mein’ and ‘Modi Modi’. While, ruling Samajwadi Party’s office wore a deserted look. Counting of votes began at 8 am in Assembly polls in five states – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur.
The BJP is cruising ahead in 295 seats, with the Samajwadi Party-Congress combine leading in just 74 seats. In Punjab, the Congress crossed the halfway mark, as trends showed the party ahead in 65 seats. Incumbent SAD-BJP coalition that has ruled the state for two terms is trailing far behind. Surprisingly, Aam Aadmi Party is nipped in the bud. In Uttarakhand, BJP seems to have dislodged the Congress, riding on the anti-incumbency wave against the grand old party.
While, in Manipur and Goa, Congress has taken a lead over BJP. Activist Irom Sharmila, who made her political debut in Manipur, lost to three-time Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh from Thoubal constituency by 8,000 votes. In UP, the Samajwadi Party dug its own grave last year in the middle of an intense power struggle with party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav and brother Shivpal on one side and son and chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and cousin Ramgopal on the other.
The two factions sacked each other from party posts in a free-for-all earlier this year, even fighting for the party symbol. This was before Akhilesh decided to tie up with the Congress to thwart a resurgent BJP. That obviously did not go down too well with the grassroots as the results now show. There have been loud grumblings from SP leaders that Congress candidates had contested against the Samajwadi Party in certain constituencies paving the way for the BJP to take advantage of the vote divide. Party leaders said the alliance may have helped the Congress but it certainly did not do anything for the SP.
A victory in Uttar Pradesh will be a boost BJP president Amit Shah's authority as capturing power in Uttar Pradesh has been a dream project for the party after it was reduced to the margins of the state politics that it ruled for much of the 1990s. Shah has been seen as the architect of the party's outreach to various social groups, mostly OBCs and sections of Dalits. A BJP win in the state polls will also boost its strength in the Rajya Sabha where the Congress-led opposition has been able to block the government's legislative agenda due to its numerical superiority. The Congress, on the other hand, has sought to insulate party vice president Rahul Gandhi from any negative fallout saying poll results are never a referendum on any single individual.
Uttar Pradesh
The most riveting contest is in Uttar Pradesh, which is seen as a gamechanger and a virtual referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity and his reforms agenda. In 2012, the Samajwadi Party swept to power defeating incumbent chief minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party which had got an absolute majority in the previous elections. SP had won 224 seats of the 401 it contested, garnering a vote share of 29.15 per cent with an upswing of 3.72 per cent over the last elections. The BSP had got 80 seats with a 25.91 per cent vote share. The BJP managed 47 seats with 15 per cent vote share, while the Congress got 28 seats with 11.63 per cent vote share. In the 2014 general elections, however, the BJP captured Uttar Pradesh, winning 71 of the 80 parliamentary seats. It got a vote share of 42.30 per cent. The SP managed only 5 seats with a vote share of 22.2 per cent, the Congress and Apna Dal got 2 seats each while Mayawati was left high and dry.
Congress is claiming it will wrest power in Punjab. All exit polls have predicted a wipeout for the ruling Akali Dal-BJP alliance and contest is seen between the Congress and the Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party. Votes were counted at 54 centres in 27 locations set up for election to 117-member Punjab Assembly. The Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine came to power in Punjab in 2012 for the second term, winning 68 of the 117 seats. The total vote share of the combine was around 42 per cent. The Congress won 46 seats with a vote share of nearly 40 per cent, while Independents got 3. In the 2014 general elections, the Aam Aadmi Party won 4, the SAD-BJP alliance 4 and Congress’ UPA 3 – down from 8 in 2009. But incumbency hangs heavy on the SAD-BJP alliance this time in the face of a resurgent Congress and dark horse AAP.
In Goa, votes were counted at two centres in North and South Goa to declare the winners in 40 seats. In 2012, the BJP-Maharashtrawadi Gomantak had defeated incumbent Congress-led by Chief Minister Digambar Kamat, getting 24 of Goa’s 40 seats. The BJP won 21 seats. Between the two, they lapped up a vote share of 41 per cent. In 2014, the BJP picked up both Lok Sabha seats in Goa – taking one away from the Congress.
A total of 637 candidates including 56 contested for 70 seats in the Uttarakhand Assembly. 15 counting centres were established in Uttarakhand where the Assembly strength is 70. In 2012, the BJP tried to cash in on former chief minister BC Khanduri’s clean image but bagged only 31 of the 70 seats putting Congress in the driver’s seat. The Grand Old Party had emerged as the single largest party with 32 seats and 33.79% vote share, but the BJP lost with a very small margin and got 33.13% vote share. The BSP could only win in three seats of the 70 it contested, with 12.19 vote share. In the 2014 general elections, BJP cast its spell on Uttarakhand and won all five seats form the state with 55.30% vote share.
In Manipur, counting of votes were held for 60 seats. Congress’ Okram Ibobi Singh has ruled in Manipur for 15 years. Congress emerged as the lone giant in 2012 Manipur Assembly polls and achieved a hat-trick win by securing 42 of the 60 seats in the state. It was sweet victory for Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh as the party got 42.42 vote share. The All India Trinamool Congress came second with 7 seats and 17% vote share. BJP could not make a mark in the state and did not win a single seat. In the 2014 general elections too, Congress reigned supreme and won both the seats in Manipur.


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