Highlights:
- Russian oil accounted for 21.2 percent of India’s total crude imports in January 2026, the lowest share since October 2022.
- Russian oil shipments to India totaled about 1.1 million bpd in January, down 23.5 percent from December.
- Volumes were roughly one-third lower compared with January 2025.
- Middle Eastern crude rose to approximately 55 percent of total imports, the highest share in the period analyzed.
- Latin American oil reached around 10 percent of imports, a 12-month high.
- A US-India interim trade deal reduced tariffs while citing India’s commitment to scale back Russian oil purchases.
Russian oil shipments to India totaled about 1.1 million bpd in January 2026. This marks a 23.5 percent decline compared with December 2025. On a year-on-year basis, Russian oil volumes were about one-third lower than January 2025 levels.
Russian oil accounted for 21.2 percent of India’s total crude imports in January. This represents the smallest share since October 2022, when India was still in the early stages of increasing Russian oil purchases following the Ukraine conflict.
Industry analysts expect Russian oil flows to remain under pressure in the coming months. Estimates suggest imports could average between 1 million and 1.2 million bpd in February, with a possible further decline in March.
The fall in Russian oil imports reflects both geopolitical and commercial factors. Western sanctions linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine have complicated shipping logistics and compliance processes, making Russian oil transactions more complex.
Russian Oil Replaced by Middle Eastern Supply
As Russian oil imports declined, India increased crude purchases from the Middle East. Oil from Middle Eastern suppliers accounted for approximately 55 percent of India’s total crude imports in January 2026. This is the highest share recorded in the period analyzed.
The rise in Middle Eastern supply has pushed the share of OPEC crude in India’s import basket to an 11-month peak. Saudi Arabia is once again emerging as a primary supplier. February data shows imports from Riyadh tracking at record highs.
The increase in Middle Eastern oil underscores India’s strategy of rebalancing its energy sources while maintaining supply stability.
Latin American Crude Gains as Russian Oil Share Falls
In addition to the Middle East, India increased imports from Latin America. Latin American grades accounted for around 10 percent of total imports in January, representing a 12-month high.
The growth in Latin American supply indicates that India is broadening its crude sourcing base as Russian oil volumes decline. By diversifying suppliers, India aims to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks associated with Russian oil while ensuring adequate supply for domestic refiners.
Russian Oil and US-India Trade Negotiations
The decline in Russian oil imports coincides with developments in US-India trade relations. In an interim agreement, the United States reduced the tariff rate on Indian products to 18 percent and scrapped a 25 percent punitive duty.
The easing of tariff measures was partly linked to India’s commitment to cut back on Russian oil purchases. Washington has also encouraged India to increase energy imports from the United States and other producers, including Venezuela.
The trade arrangement adds a strategic dimension to India’s decision to reduce the share of Russian oil in its import basket.
Despite the recent decline, analysts indicate that India is unlikely to eliminate Russian oil imports entirely in the near term. Russian oil can still offer price advantages compared with alternative grades.
However, the data suggests that Russian oil volumes are likely to decline gradually rather than abruptly. India’s refiners appear to be adjusting procurement decisions in response to sanctions risks, trade negotiations, and market conditions.
With Russian oil at 21.2 percent of total imports in January 2026, its role in India’s crude basket has decreased significantly compared with previous highs. The trajectory of Russian oil imports will depend on global pricing trends, shipping conditions, sanctions enforcement, and the direction of US-India trade relations.
For now, January 2026 marks a notable shift in India’s energy sourcing strategy, with Russian oil at a three-year low and alternative suppliers expanding their share.
